Hot & Cold: Where the Luxury Real Estate Market Is Winning — and Where It Isn't
By Myles Lewis | Coldwell Banker Global Luxury | Austin & Los Angeles | April 2026
Not all luxury real estate markets are created equal right now. The data makes that very clear. While the broader housing market continues to navigate elevated rates and softening demand, the $5M+ segment is telling a more nuanced story — one defined by structural scarcity in some markets and pandemic-era oversupply in others.
As a luxury real estate agent operating across Austin and Los Angeles, I track this data closely because it shapes every conversation I have with buyers and sellers. Here's what the numbers are telling me right now.
Where the Money Is Moving: Hot Luxury Markets in 2026
Palm Beach & Miami, Florida
South Florida is operating in a different universe right now. According to the Compass Ultra-Luxury Report, South Florida logged 361 ultra-luxury sales above $10M in 2025 — the second highest on record — with over 80% of those transactions closing in all-cash. Palm Beach County alone recorded 141 sales at $10M or more, up from just 37 in 2019.
This demand is structural, not cyclical. The migration of family office capital, financial services firms, and ultra-high-net-worth individuals from New York and California isn't reversing. Combine that with near-zero inventory and no state income tax, and you have a market that continues to outperform regardless of what's happening in the broader economy.
Manhattan, New York
Manhattan remains the deepest ultra-luxury market in the country by volume. January 2026 was the second-strongest January in a decade for contracts above $5M, while active inventory fell to its lowest point since 2013. Buyers shopping above $4M are facing genuine competition. The $10M+ segment thrived in 2025, with sales jumping 29-37% year-over-year and average prices hitting all-time highs.
Los Angeles, California
2025 was a defining year for the Los Angeles luxury market. Despite the well-documented challenges the city faced, trophy assets are moving and days on market are compressing on A-class properties. The $5M+ segment is seeing renewed competition, and the fundamental value proposition — land, privacy, the compound lifestyle — remains irreplaceable at this price point.
Aspen & Mountain Resort Markets
Mountain resort markets have fully recovered from the 2023 correction and are posting new records. In the Aspen area, the top 1% threshold starts at $59.2M — the highest ceiling of any market in the country. The lifestyle shift that drove buyers to these markets during the pandemic has proven permanent, creating sustained demand against extremely limited supply.
Where It's Cold: Luxury Markets Under Pressure
The cold markets share a common thread: artificial demand driven by remote work migration that has since normalized, layered on top of too much new construction entering at exactly the wrong time.
Tampa, Florida
Luxury inventory in Tampa surged over 30% in 2025 while prices fell 6% year-over-year — a clear case of supply overwhelming demand at the high end. Tampa saw one of the largest inventory buildups of any major market, and the luxury segment hasn't found its floor.
Fort Worth & Portland
According to Redfin's Q4 2025 analysis, Fort Worth and Portland were the only two major metros to post outright year-over-year luxury price declines — down 1.9% and 0.7% respectively. Both markets are working through the aftermath of pandemic-era demand spikes that weren't backed by structural fundamentals.
Denver & Phoenix
Both Denver and Phoenix are down significantly from their pandemic peaks — Phoenix by roughly 10.4% and Denver by 7.1%. These were among the most in-demand markets during the remote work migration of 2020-2022, and both overbuilt into that demand. They are still working through excess inventory at every price point, including luxury.
Austin: The Opportunity Market
Austin deserves its own category.
Yes, Austin is down from its 2022 peak — that's not a secret, and it's not something I'm going to minimize. But the narrative that Austin is a cold market misses something important: the $3M-$10M segment grew faster here than any major U.S. city in 2025, fueled by tech wealth from companies that relocated here permanently. Luxury homes are now selling in 24 days — down 22% from a year ago.
The correction created real value in a market with genuinely strong long-term fundamentals: job growth, a young demographic, a business-friendly environment, and a permanent influx of tech and financial services capital. For the right buyer, that's not a red flag. That's a window — and windows close.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
The dividing line between hot and cold markets in 2026 isn't geography or weather — it's structural scarcity versus oversupply. The markets that are performing have one thing in common: there simply isn't enough of the right product for the buyers who want it. The markets that are struggling have the opposite problem.
For sellers in hot markets: pricing discipline still matters. Even in Palm Beach and Manhattan, overpriced listings sit. The data rewards accuracy.
For buyers in cold markets: this is real negotiating leverage, but it won't last indefinitely in markets with strong underlying fundamentals.
For buyers and sellers in Austin: the opportunity is real. But knowing which specific properties and submarkets are performing requires someone inside the market — not someone reading headlines about it.
About Myles Lewis
Myles Lewis is a luxury real estate agent licensed in Texas and California, serving UHNW clients across Austin and Los Angeles. Ranked in the top 1.5% nationally by Coldwell Banker and named to the 2025 International President's Club, Myles holds the CLHMS designation from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing and has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, and New York Post.
For a confidential conversation about buying or selling luxury real estate in Austin or Los Angeles, contact Myles directly at (512) 844-2100 or (323) 377-7033.
Sources: Compass Ultra-Luxury Report 2025 · Miami Realtors Association · Corcoran/Inhabit Q1 2026 · Zillow Research · Redfin Q4 2025 Luxury Market Report · Realtor.com March 2026 Luxury Housing Report · Austin Board of Realtors / Unlock MLS